Javier Milei is one of the most eccentric figures in what Cas Mudde (2020) describes as the ‘fourth wave’ of far-right politics. This wave, characterized by the rise of radical ideas and their mainstream acceptance, is a global trend that is reshaping democracies. It is marked by the normalization of previously fringe ideas and agendas, creating new challenges for established political systems. Argentina, with its long history of populism, had not experienced this global trend until Milei’s emergence, nor had it seen significant influence from outsiders in its politics since the military dictatorship.
What circumstances led Argentina to embrace an outsider with a far-right agenda? What are the sources of Milei’s electoral support? How does Milei differ from other expressions of this global radical right movement?
Milei, a flamboyant figure who identifies as an “anarcho-capitalist” with a radical anti-establishment message, capitalized on widespread dissatisfaction with the country’s economic troubles. His unexpected ascent to Argentina’s presidency, winning 55.7% of the votes in the November 2023 runoff election, was a unique occurrence in Argentine politics. It reflects a broader global trend of populist leaders who tap into public anger and offer extreme solutions to complex problems, questioning the status quo and undermining traditional party structures. His sudden entry into politics and rapid ascent to power shocked the Argentine political establishment, as the country had, despite its challenges, remained primarily resistant to outsider politics.
Despite the widespread anti-political sentiment that emerged during the 2001 crisis, the political system managed to navigate it, leading to a stabilization and restructuring of the country’s party system. This stability evolved into a competitive dynamic between two relatively programmatic coalitions: the Peronists, led by Cristina Kirchner, and a center-right force, led by Mauricio Macri.
Javier Milei’s rapid political rise occurred amid significant public anger and widespread dissatisfaction with democracy’s functioning, as the electorate believed neither coalition had succeeded in reversing economic decline, but particularly kirchnerismo, which has been the dominant political force since 2003. In a study conducted a year before the 2023 election, 63% of respondents expressed a negative view of the country’s overall situation, while only 11% considered it positive. Almost half of those surveyed (46%) believed that conditions would worsen in the coming year. This prevailing discontent translated into a growing dissatisfaction with democracy itself, with 66% of respondents feeling dissatisfied or very dissatisfied, up from 50% the previous year.
This discontent stemmed from prolonged economic stagnation and high inflation, which led to a continued decline in the population’s purchasing power and an increase in poverty rates. Against this backdrop, neither of the two political coalitions that previously dominated the political landscape was able to reverse the trend. Cristina Kirchner completed her second term with an annual inflation rate of 30%; Mauricio Macri ended his term with 53.8%; and Alberto Fernández faced a staggering 115.6% inflation rate.
Milei effectively tailored global far-right narratives to resonate with the specific concerns and grievances of the Argentine population. He merged a radical anti-establishment stance with a libertarian economic approach advocating drastic policy changes, fiscal prudency, and extensive deregulation to address Argentina’s persistent decline and recurring financial crises. The chainsaw has become a symbol of his approach.
Milei attributed Argentina’s problems to a century of policies promoted by a corrupt and self-serving elite, positioning himself as a determined outsider ready to challenge this powerful establishment. He declared himself the first “libertarian” president in history, advocating for a return to foundational liberal principles through full economic liberalization and deregulation. He garnered support from an electorate frustrated with previous incumbents and eager to move beyond the failed economic policies that had created a challenging socioeconomic situation.
Additionally, he adopted the anti-woke discourse commonly found among the global far-right. However, such an agenda faced domestic resistance in a society that values the democratic achievements of the past four decades. The normalization of fringe ideas did not occur; we are witnessing the opposite trend: the normalization of Milei’s political approach, as society calls for his administration to drop its cultural war and focus fundamentally on the economy. This societal resistance provides a reassuring counterbalance to Milei’s radical agenda.
Analysts had low expectations for Milei’s effectiveness in governance. Argentina’s staggered legislative elections limited its ability to convert national popularity into legislative majorities. With his party, La Libertad Avanza, holding only 14.8% of the seats in the lower house and 9.7% in the Senate, many predicted he would struggle to govern and might even face impeachment threats in Congress. Despite these predictions, Milei’s administration has maintained strong public approval. This positive sentiment can largely be attributed to his notable economic achievements, which include reducing inflation from double-digit monthly rates to approximately 2.5% monthly by December 2024, effectively managing the peso/dollar exchange rate, and decreasing the poverty rate.
Recently, the current administration’s approval was put to the test in the mid-term elections, resulting in an unexpected landslide victory for LLA. Despite ongoing concerns about corruption scandals and an impending economic recession, the electorate ultimately preferred to extend support to Milei for another two years rather than reversing their decision and risking another financial crisis.
Milei is now poised to relaunch his administration and continue his economic liberalization policies. He not only received strong electoral backing but also crucial financial support from the Trump administration. However, this support is fragile; it depends on Milei’s ability to overcome economic stagnation and resume growth.
As his administration has lost the initial appeal of being an outsider, faced corruption scandals, and dealt with internal factionalism, his push for a cultural battle has resonated little with society. His future now hinges on his ability to break Argentina’s cycle of economic volatility and stagnation, ushering in a new era of prosperity. Should he succeed, he may address the most critical shortcoming in the democratic system.
